Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins above Wall Street estimates on Thursday, optimistic about a healthy rebound in personal computer sales, improvement in its data center business, and a growing lineup of customers seeking its manufacturing services.
The total market of x86 PCs is approximately $7.9 billion for Intel and $1 billion for AMD, totaling $8.9 billion per quarter, with virtually no further room for growth. The server and edge computing market is around $5.2 billion for Intel and $2.4 billion for AMD, totaling $6.8 billion. There is an estimated 30-40% growth potential in this sector. The chip foundry market is approximately $12 billion for TSMC, $5 billion for Samsung Electronics, $1.2 billion for SMIC, and $300 million for Intel, totaling $18.5 billion. This market may continue to shrink in the future, with the main growth potential coming from China’s SMIC. If Intel focuses on this area, there is a significant opportunity for growth, at least considering this market as a blue ocean for Intel.
I expect SMIC’s foundry business, primarily serving the domestic Chinese market, to increase to $4 billion per quarter within 5 years. Meanwhile, Intel’s IFS (Intel Foundry Services) is projected to rise to $2 billion. Simultaneously, TSMC and Samsung are expected to decrease from $12 billion to $9.5 billion and from $5 billion to $3.5 billion, respectively, within the same timeframe.