The irony here is that blocking China from importing certain chips will do little except pressure them even more to develop their own chip manufacturing industry, which is already growing fast
There are not. Chip manufacturing is extraordinarily delicate. You need incredibly precise machinery to operate in a vacuum with highly skilled workers. All three of these things react poorly to bombs.
If a Chinese capture of Taiwan is strongly opposed by just the Taiwanese, not even the Americans, then it will take just as long to reactivate TSMC as it would to build a new Chinese manufacturing base from scratch. If not longer, given risks of insurgents, UXO, and devastated infrastructure.
China would be a dead state if they tried. The problem would be that the Chinese military is actually too weak to invade Taiwan. They could send a LOT of boats, yes. And the antiship missiles we’ve fed to Taiwan, and those they have produced would decimate that fleet and kill hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers. They’d be dealing with revolution at home, have a crippled navy, and be cut off from the international trade system as every approaching vessel is targetd from hundreds of miles away.
Also, all those mega structures? The massive infrastructure expansion, the pipelines to Russia? Yeah those are nice targets. And all perfectly valid to destroy in a defensive war against an aggressor.
Yes, Taiwan can reach Beijing with missiles powerful enough to level skyscrapers and factories alike.
Taiwans Defence ministers talk about surviving more than two weeks and you talk about winning. Can’t tell if you’ve fallen for DPP brainrot or Chiang Kai Sheks retake the mainland propaganda.
Dunno, I recall reading some detailed report about a “gentleman’s agreement” the US military has with Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing companies, where if China is on the verge of taking the island, we would tactically bomb all foundries immediately. In return, the US will foot the bill to rebuild their companies manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere immediately after.
Then there’s the CHIPS Act which included, among other things, a ton of money invested into Intel to basically re-shore US competitiveness in semiconductors. It’s clearly a strategic vulnerability for so much of the worldwide capacity to be concentrated in this little island way closer to global rivals than in domestic territory.
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. The technology is not available elsewhere. Even if it took a full year to get production back, the technology and institutional knowledge is still a decade or two ahead. They literally can’t compete, that’s why a block is effective in the first place.
That’s fine. Developing a domestic chip manufacturing base is expensive and time consuming, so the US will have a major competitive advantage for the next few years. China may also be incapable of matching US and Taiwanese chip quality, which imposes additional costs. The goal isn’t “make sure China never builds a computer,” it’s just “make sure Chinese computers are more expensive so everyone buys American.”
That will still never work though, Chinese manufacturing blows American out of the water. They will surpass us very soon unless America fully blocks the import of their chips, just like we did with their electric cars, which are vastly superior to ours.
You should compare legit European/American ICs with their Chinese clones which they fakely label as the other ICs, for some things people don’t notice, but something a lot of people do notice is they’re extraordinarily shit
I mean, even if you are right that Chinese manufacturing is superior, which is improbable, it still isn’t great for China. If it was cheaper and faster for them to develop domestic manufacturing, then it would have happened already. So while they build up, they will be non competitive with other manufacturers, even if they do have a strong product in a few years. Which again, is unlikely.
It won’t, ASML can’t export newer technology to China. If China can make its own lithography equipment for chips, then it’s all over. They haven’t yet. Plus ASML is the only in its field.
Yes. They are so far behind cause they’ve always been able to just buy chips for far less money than making them. Now we have taken away their ability to buy chips, and they have no choice but to learn to make them or get left behind. They have made it extremely clear that they have chosen the former.
They won’t grow that fast due to their tech companies pretty much only hiring Chinese citizens to work for them. They are also paramilitary at this point since the companies are owned by the government.
The only way they can progress is going to be stealing tech and info from other countries. They mostly do this by sending Chinese military operatives to other countries as students or tech workers.
The reason Nato countries are so much faster at developing tech is because they import brain power. You go to a tech company in the US and you will see researchers from every country working on projects.
Their chip capacity hasn’t grown cause they’ve always been able to buy chips. They can’t anymore, so the incentive to develop that tech is higher than ever. And they have plenty of manpower
The irony here is that blocking China from importing certain chips will do little except pressure them even more to develop their own chip manufacturing industry, which is already growing fast
China’s ambitions in re-acquiring Taiwan aren’t just political. There is also potentially huge economic gains there.
How. The moment they try and get close to a what is essentially an impossible landfall. The foundries to boom. It’s part of the defense strategy.
And losing TSMC will have little impact to China in the coming years because the US already cut them off.
China has nothing to lose so why let you enjoy your AI chips?
There are not. Chip manufacturing is extraordinarily delicate. You need incredibly precise machinery to operate in a vacuum with highly skilled workers. All three of these things react poorly to bombs.
If a Chinese capture of Taiwan is strongly opposed by just the Taiwanese, not even the Americans, then it will take just as long to reactivate TSMC as it would to build a new Chinese manufacturing base from scratch. If not longer, given risks of insurgents, UXO, and devastated infrastructure.
China would be a dead state if they tried. The problem would be that the Chinese military is actually too weak to invade Taiwan. They could send a LOT of boats, yes. And the antiship missiles we’ve fed to Taiwan, and those they have produced would decimate that fleet and kill hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers. They’d be dealing with revolution at home, have a crippled navy, and be cut off from the international trade system as every approaching vessel is targetd from hundreds of miles away.
Also, all those mega structures? The massive infrastructure expansion, the pipelines to Russia? Yeah those are nice targets. And all perfectly valid to destroy in a defensive war against an aggressor.
Yes, Taiwan can reach Beijing with missiles powerful enough to level skyscrapers and factories alike.
Taiwans Defence ministers talk about surviving more than two weeks and you talk about winning. Can’t tell if you’ve fallen for DPP brainrot or Chiang Kai Sheks retake the mainland propaganda.
Dunno, I recall reading some detailed report about a “gentleman’s agreement” the US military has with Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing companies, where if China is on the verge of taking the island, we would tactically bomb all foundries immediately. In return, the US will foot the bill to rebuild their companies manufacturing infrastructure elsewhere immediately after.
Then there’s the CHIPS Act which included, among other things, a ton of money invested into Intel to basically re-shore US competitiveness in semiconductors. It’s clearly a strategic vulnerability for so much of the worldwide capacity to be concentrated in this little island way closer to global rivals than in domestic territory.
Oh ready, and what happened with the people?
And you think losing TSMC isn’t a benefit to China because China also have equal access?
How is Arizona going? Well? Production in 3 months? 6 months?
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. The technology is not available elsewhere. Even if it took a full year to get production back, the technology and institutional knowledge is still a decade or two ahead. They literally can’t compete, that’s why a block is effective in the first place.
That’s fine. Developing a domestic chip manufacturing base is expensive and time consuming, so the US will have a major competitive advantage for the next few years. China may also be incapable of matching US and Taiwanese chip quality, which imposes additional costs. The goal isn’t “make sure China never builds a computer,” it’s just “make sure Chinese computers are more expensive so everyone buys American.”
That will still never work though, Chinese manufacturing blows American out of the water. They will surpass us very soon unless America fully blocks the import of their chips, just like we did with their electric cars, which are vastly superior to ours.
Why do people just go on the internet and lie
America bad right? Fuck America
You should compare legit European/American ICs with their Chinese clones which they fakely label as the other ICs, for some things people don’t notice, but something a lot of people do notice is they’re extraordinarily shit
I mean, even if you are right that Chinese manufacturing is superior, which is improbable, it still isn’t great for China. If it was cheaper and faster for them to develop domestic manufacturing, then it would have happened already. So while they build up, they will be non competitive with other manufacturers, even if they do have a strong product in a few years. Which again, is unlikely.
It buys time
It won’t, ASML can’t export newer technology to China. If China can make its own lithography equipment for chips, then it’s all over. They haven’t yet. Plus ASML is the only in its field.
is it though? they’re kind of inept, their biggest successes with SMIC had disastrous yields
They are still years away from working 7nm. There is no irony only your misunderstanding.
Yes. They are so far behind cause they’ve always been able to just buy chips for far less money than making them. Now we have taken away their ability to buy chips, and they have no choice but to learn to make them or get left behind. They have made it extremely clear that they have chosen the former.
Have you seen the domestic chinese chips?For an example,the Moore Threads GPUs are jokes,worse than Pascal.
Cutting China off will buy us a lot of time.
They won’t grow that fast due to their tech companies pretty much only hiring Chinese citizens to work for them. They are also paramilitary at this point since the companies are owned by the government.
The only way they can progress is going to be stealing tech and info from other countries. They mostly do this by sending Chinese military operatives to other countries as students or tech workers.
The reason Nato countries are so much faster at developing tech is because they import brain power. You go to a tech company in the US and you will see researchers from every country working on projects.
Their chip capacity hasn’t grown cause they’ve always been able to buy chips. They can’t anymore, so the incentive to develop that tech is higher than ever. And they have plenty of manpower
So it’s better to give people we don’t trust what they haven’t got, because otherwise they’ll have to work out how to make them?
You’re demonstrating why neoliberal commercial thinking isn’t what we need to build a safer and better future.