I remember when Intel dismissed the pretty insignificant ARM Phone challenge.
Pat is doing the right things for an Intel turnaround, but I hope this is just CEO talk and not actual dismissal, and this isn’t like Blackberry laughing off the first iPhone. AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple are all going to be throwing down in ARM by 2025, so Intel should at least have internal efforts testing and being ready to go so they don’t get caught with their pants down if it does become a major move.
All Windows needs is a good translation layer like Rosetta 2 and Intel would be in trouble.
Pat also said “AMD is in our rearview mirror” after Alder Lake and this month intel released a “new generation” that doesn’t even beat AMD’s current gen or come remotely close in efficiency so yeah I’ll just take what he says with a grain of salt.
They blew them out for a solid 2 years in client so idk chief seems like a bit of a goalpost
zen3 and zen4 are neck and neck with 12th and 13th gen. amd has the sales and marketing momentum so theyre still moving more units, at least for the desktop side.
Not on the OEM side which is where the vast majority of sales go. Intel and Nvidia have a stranglehold there.
What you’re saying is the DIY crowd not the OEMs like Dell and HP. Intel has that covered and AMD is pivoting to data centers and AI.
No they’re not. Go revisit base Zen 3 and Zen 4 figures (not X3D).
Yes, look at everything expect that stuff that beats intel. Makes sense…
“Zen 3 and Zen 4 are neck and neck”
They’re not though. Plain Zen 3 and 4 are worse. When you slap a bunch of cache on, then they’re more competitive. That’s not what was written originally though.
Most of the people seething about Gelsinger’s comment fail to realize that a single high cost CPU beating the competition by 5% doesn’t make for a product line up.
AMD’s client division has been reporting consecutive losses for the past four quarters as a result of their baseline desktop products underperforming, a gigantic Zen3 inventory issue, and not being able to ship laptop chips in volume.
People judge the entire Zen 3 and Zen4 by the X3D model. Which in the casebof Zen3 was one single CPU
It doesn’t need to beat. Especially not on desktop. Desktop is like Lamborghini vs Ferrari vs Porsche. They are all winners.
The real fight is in Mobile Laptop. And that is where MeteorLake has two edges over AMD.
Ai accelerator chip and Big.LITTLE. And one could argue that they have volume as well. The laptop manufacturers want volume and consistency.
AMD has to compete for nodes from TSMC vs. Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Intel and even AMD’s own Sony and XBOX platforms. Intel arguably has an edge on this front.
Apple does have to use its volume from TSMC for iPad, iPhone, watches and then MacBooks.
Intel has the luxury of supply and maybe even oversupply if they have Foundry customers lining up.
I agree with you apart from your points about apple. The air is the only one without a fan, and in the Software Engineering jobs I’ve worked, Macbook Pros are abundant due to being more reliable than Windows/ Linux-based machines. So apple do ship their laptops at volume, more than AMD does anyway. It just depends on which career segments you are taking into account.
14th gen’s perf/watt is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. It wasn’t even brought up in today’s investor call, and none of the big name investors even brought it up during Q&A
Investors aren’t DIY enthusiasts. What they want is how the company performs. So far Intel is getting a good revenue from laptops and desktops but they’re losing the data center battle with AMD.
He’s talking to investors, not hardware enthusiasts. From that perspective, he’s right.
It catches up sooner or later. They were raking in the cash with the million Skylake refreshes. But look where they are now.
Yeah, I listened to the investor live stream. Not a single investor call in question cared about 14th gen desktop
No investor cares about the tiny DIY market. Intel has Meteor lake lined up in the laptop space, and that’s infinitely more important.
He has to say that or Intel’s stock will tank further.
He is likely aware that Windows on ARM PCs will target the bulk of PCs shipped worldwide: non-gamers.
Why? Because they will be as weak sauce as M1 & M2 Macs on gaming until 29 Oct 2023. After that day it is a different story.
I’ll give an example of tech disruption for the purpose of efficiency that caused a labor union strike.
UAW Strike Could Threaten Ford, GM, and Stellantis’ Already-Tough Transition to EVs
The issue here is that labor would be reduced as the factory floor becomes less labor intensive and new skills are needed when transitioning from combustion engine to EVs.
UAW members at those plants want guarantees that they will not be displaced en masse due to this tech improvements.
Unlike UAW, Intel does not have those legal rights to stick around. Once the parts contracts expire the PC OEMs will make better business decisions like Apple.
In 2016 Intel CEO pointed out that the PC upgrade cycle slowed from 3 years to 5-6 years. This is backed by Intel-backed research from YoY worldwide shipments.
From 2024-2030 Windows on ARM laptops will proliferate because they’re a better value battery-wise, physical-wise and $-wise for non-gamers.
By 2030s within the Windows market Desktop Laptop ARM ~20% ~80% x86 ~80% ~20% Worldwide shipments including gamers & non-gamers ~20% ~80% The companies below ship ~1 billion Android SoC in 2022 with IPs & R&D money backing them
Top Android SoC brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments
The 1st 2 companies below shipped a little over quarter billion x86 chips in 2022 with IPs & 1/4th the R&D money backing them
Top x86 compatible parts brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments
Links above points to these brands making ARM PC chips.
ARM SoC makers have more access to leading edge-nodes than Intel. Apple has monopoly on any future node.
It is so limited that the most advanced node Intel has access to is dedicated solely for their mobile chips. Apple’s monopoly allows them to be 1st to 5nm in 2020 & 1st to 3nm in 2023 for all their product stack.
It is likely that the minority of Apple chips will be on 5nm by 2024. Will Intel have any TSMC 5nm-sized parts by next year? Almost all ARM PC chips do.
By 2030s at best x86 will become as relevant as mainframes are today in the time of PCs.
Legacy users will demand it but are the bulk of /r/hardware updated on the latest mainframe products and services are we?
The sole bottleneck is Microsoft in improving 3rd party legacy & future apps to run on ARM chips equally well as x86.
Something to keep in mind the M3 can’t provide a crazy increase in CPU or GPU performance all while offering up dedicated ray tracing cores and significantly improved AI performance. TMSC 3nm gains over 4/5nm are more modest compared to past node shrinks.
This reads like Blockbuster CEO talking about streaming
“Tis but a scratch”
Arm laptops and Arm servers are two monster barbarians at the gate. Gelsinger despite what he says is pivoting towards being America’s chip fab so he’s pretty much intent on retreating from that fight and competing against Samsung and TSMC instead. Which I don’t think is a terrible strategy, since he can sell the government FUD about supply chains and how you can only trust an American company to make CPUs for the military.
He’s just bullshitting the press. He’s a CEO. They’re all liars.
so youre saying we should trust china?
US Government computers get more fps that way, yes /s
and how you can only trust an American company to make CPUs for the military.
Well…yes. The US Military is pretty explicit on their onshore desires and requirements. The last thing they want is military chips manufactured right off the coast of China
Which I don’t think is a terrible strategy, since he can sell the government FUD about supply chains and how you can only trust an American company to make CPUs for the military.
That is exactly why I own some Intel stocks. Intel is bullshitting its way into becoming a cushy government contractor because it’s the only American chip manufacturer left. I’m already paying uncle Sam taxes. I might as well try to get some of my money back by owning Intel stock.
I don’t have that much faith in Intel’s actual chip designs going forward though. I think Apple will continue to lead in laptop chips with Qualcomm joining the ride, AMD will continue to be better for server CPUs with Ampere Computing/Graviton joining the competition, and Nvidia will continue to dominate GPUs and AI chips as always. It’s hard for me to see how Intel can win in actual chip designs in the next 5 years.
Make sales are expected to have a downturn since although m2 chips lead in perf/watt for cpus, they’re still too expensive and slow gpu side for the average user. Intels greatest strength is economies of scale, especially if meteor lake runs well with mcm then it lowers production cost significantly.
I dont think intel can win in chip designs in the next 5 years but if they are competitive with their fabs, they’re in a good position as volume is more important.
Doesn’t opening up Intel fabs also open up x86 for mobile and server customers? If that’s the case why wouldn’t Amazon jump on the x86 bandwagon for their server chips? Especially now that the gap between 14nm and 7nm is being closed with 2nm vs 18a.
Giving a license for the x86 ISA is a different matter from allowing them to use their fab to make ARM chips.
Also the x86 ISA is not actually very good. It’s good at a few specific things but ARM is generally more efficient overall.
This might be blackberry 2.0
Steve Balmer commenting on $500 iPhone energy.
Always fun to rewatch this: https://youtu.be/eywi0h_Y5_U?si=oTx9h_IPPFSeKtu-
Windows 11 runs really well on Arm nowadays, especially at running x86 software. Most people don’t realize how good it is.
Someone should probably let him know that things have changed a lot in the last 10 years.
What’s that saying again? Past performance is not indicative of future results?
Another Nokia or Blackberry moment in tech history?
Like they made fun of amd even in 2019/2020 when it was clear they were loosing market share fast? Some of Intel ingeneers even posted shit about amd on Twitter
executive says their product is better than their competitors’ products
Wow never ever heard that before 😮
And they can say that while knowing the designers that made apple’s chips are behind this new arm pc chip threat. This means have to pump and dump their stock while they can.
Qualcomm and MS haven’t been all that successful with Arm based PCs and it’s a long road to get the whole ecosystem on board. So many 3rd party ISVs, hardware, periperals, drivers, etc that don’t want to commit resources for questionable return. Would NVidia be any more successful than QC? Questionable, and who knows, perhaps Intel may get tapped to actually manufacture those chips.
Yeah sure, Apple is able to pull it off because it’s a closed ecosystem and there is no choice for the 3rd party ISVs and such since Apple x86 is a dead end.
Consumers don’t care about architectures, they care about features and usability.
Current intel cpus are pretty efficient already anyways. My NUC idles at ~2W and has thanks to x86 the best possible software compatibility.